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Saturday, June 11, 2011

How Changes in the Market Have Affected Home Values in Berea, OH

This will be fun for those number crunching types!


According to Zillow, the median sale price for a single family home in Berea, OH is $120, 000.  Median, being the middle value, meaning half the homes sold above and half sold below this number, seems a safe way to show what is happening in an area.  

First I confess that I am not really sure where Zillow gets its figures.  As I look at the chart, the period of greatest decline in the median sales price is listed from December 1, 2008 to July 1, 2009.  Just prior to that we saw a robust increase in median sales price from October 1, 2008 to December 1, 2008.  Zillow shows this jump going from $134,000 on October 1st to $159,000 on December 1st.   

I searched out all closed sales in the MLS from October 1, 2008 – December 1, 2008.  During this period, 31 home sales had closed in Berea, ranging from $30,000 to $250,000.  The average sales price was $101,261 and the median sales price was $98,900. 

Now I realize that this number does not represent all closed sales, as there are some that closed without the MLS, but since this number represents approximately 98% of all closed sales for that period, I am fairly confident that the additional 2% that closed outside the MLS would not skew the numbers enough to matter.  I have concluded that Zillow must be working with some sort of rolling average that I don't have the patience to calculate.  ;)

So, instead, I worked up my own little hybrid study.  I went back to 2005 to find a period of growth or stability and tracked what has happened in Berea from that point as well as the changes, year over year.  Not really a fancy rolling average kind of thing, but good info, if you ask me.  So here are the MLS stats for all single family residential properties (excluding condos) sold:

May 2005 Snapshot-Cuyahoga County:
12,357 Active/Pending Homes on the market
              1,365 Closed Sales
Berea Statistics from June 11, 2004-2005:  Y/Y Change               
Properties sold: 186                                          -3%
Average Sales Price: $138,342                         +3%
Median Sales Price: $130,000                          +2%
Low: $62,500
High: $745,000

May 2006 Snapshot-Cuyahoga County:
12,389 Active/Pending Homes on the market
              1,307 Closed Sales
Berea Statistics from June 11, 2005-2006:  Y/Y Change          2005/2006
Properties sold: 225                                          +21%                          +21% 
Average Sales Price: $137,582                         -1%                             -1%
Median Sales Price: $132,500                          +2%                            +2%
Low: $55,000
High: $310,800
                       
May 2007 Snapshot-Cuyahoga County:
12,158 Active/Pending Homes on the market
              1,230 Closed Sales
Berea Statistics from June 11, 2006-2007:  Y/Y Change          2005/2007
Properties sold: 203                                          -10%                           +9%
Average Sales Price: $132,904                         -3%                             -4%
Median Sales Price: $131,500                          -1%                             +2%
Low: $45,100
High: $357,833

May 2008 Snapshot-Cuyahoga County:
12,133 Active/Pending Homes on the market
              1,102 Closed Sales
Berea Statistics from June 11, 2007-2008:  Y/Y Change          2005/2008
Properties sold: 176                                          -13%                           -5%
Average Sales Price: $122,813                         -8%                             -11%
Median Sales Price: $125,000                          -5%                             -4%
Low: $8,500
High: $660,000

May 2009 Snapshot-Cuyahoga County:
12,268 Active/Pending Homes on the market
                 996 Closed Sales
Berea Statistics from June 11, 2008-2009:  Y/Y Change          2005/2009
Properties sold: 155                                          -12%                           -17%
Average Sales Price: $104,967                         -15%                           -24%
Median Sales Price: $100,000                          -20%                           -23%
Low: $30,000
High: $250,000

May 2010 Snapshot-Cuyahoga County:
12,576 Active/Pending Homes on the market
              1,066 Closed Sales
Berea Statistics from June 11, 2009-2010:  Y/Y Change          2005/2010
Properties sold: 203                                          +31%                          +9%
Average Sales Price: $114,559                         +9%                            -17%
Median Sales Price: $115,000                          +15%                          -12%
Low: $9,500
High: $290,000

May 2011 Snapshot-Cuyahoga County:
11,821 Active/Pending Homes on the market
                 871 Closed Sales
Berea Statistics from June 11, 2010-2011:  Y/Y Change          2005/2011
Properties sold: 143                                          -30%                           -23%
Average Sales Price: $104,480                         -9%                             -24%
Median Sales Price: $109,000                          -5%                             -16%
Low: $5,000
High: $275,000

Once again, according to Zillow, our current median sales price is $120,000.  While I like that figure better than the one the MLS provides, I am skeptical, based on the information available.  Moreover, I am a bit disappointed, at this moment, in this last 12 month period.  Until recently, Berea has enjoyed a relatively low negative impact, considering the market, on its home values.  We saw some nice gains from 2009-2010 that were almost completely wiped out from 2010-2011. 

On a positive note, however, I am confident, based on having seen much recent activity in the market, that we will see another rebound in the 2011-2012 numbers.  As I write this there are 29 homes in Berea under contract and waiting to close.  The asking prices range between $45,000 and $197,990.  Even if 10% of the deals die and another 10% don’t close within the next 30 days, we are still looking at 24 homes sold in this upcoming month.  Only 179 more to go (16 +/- per month) to match 2010, which is totally do-able.  Go Berea!!

While tools like those found on Zillow and other real estate sites can provide some general information about a market area, consider contacting your Realtor® for an up-to-date evaluation of how the current market has affected your home’s value.  Most don’t charge for this service and we are happy to keep our customers, friends and family informed about the value of their investment. 

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